Today’s defection by United States Senator Arlen Specter (R-not much) to the Democrat Party shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anyone. Faced with some steep odds in a coming GOP primary against mainstream conservative and former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, Specter demonstrated why he is a “50 plus 1″ politician.

What does that mean? A “50 plus 1″ politician is the elected official who makes every effort to be on the majority side of any issue. Example:

If more than fifty percent of the public supports a particular bill in Congress, that’s where the politician will vote.

If more than fifty percent of people polled disapprove of the performance of a Cabinet member, expect that politician to be quick to criticize the Cabinet official to any listening reporter.

And, if more than fifty percent of the voters in that politician’s party are likely to support a different candidate in the primary, expect that politician to run for the hills – in Specter’s case, the warm embrace of a Senate Democrat caucus in search of their ramrodding 60th vote.

Specter is a classic “50 plus 1″ politican. He has regularly taken great pains to be with the majority on a multitude of issues, often times at the expense of Republicans who are trying to hold together under a withering attack by Democrats and the mainstream media machine. The most recent example was the bloated, spendoriffic stimulus bill advanced by President Obama and his party. Specter was one of only three GOP members in Congress to vote for the bill. This, however, wasn’t an unusual circumstance. Rather than speaking out, showing leadership and making the case for an unpopular view, Specter could more often be found gaining media attention for being the Republican who sides with Democrats.

Another member of the U.S. Senate who left his party was Joe Lieberman. Was he a 50+1 politician? Not in the least. He found himself ousted in a primary after taking a principled stand in support of the war in Iraq. This 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate was shoved aside by the party that Speaker Pelosi today called diverse because he supported President Bush on one very important issue. Rather than duck and run for political cover before the primary, as Specter did today, Lieberman laid his views on the line and proudly stood by them.

What was a key reason Specter referenced today in the statement released before his press conference (a statement that can’t be found on his website: FAIL)? He noted the 200,000 Pennsylvania Republicans who switched their party registration last year. So, not quite the issue of war and peace which led to Lieberman’s departure from his party. No, Specter’s was a purely political calculation. As Karl Rove said today on Fox News, it was an act of political self-preservation. In his press conference today, Specter noted that he had cast approximately 10,000 votes during his career in the U.S. Senate. I’d be willing to bet that analysis of those votes would show him to be in the majority very regularly and probably more so than any of his colleagues. And, I would also be willing to bet there are very few votes in those 10,000 where Specter stood proudly in a small minority of senators on the losing side. I don’t expect Specter to be a reliable for the Democrats, however. He’ll continue to lurch to be in the majority on most issues, regardless of what they might be.

50 plus 1.